Introduction
In recent years, inflation has profoundly affected consumer goods, with food prices being a significant concern. This report delves into the impact of inflation on the cost of Thanksgiving dinner in 2025, offering insights into economic factors influencing these changes. We explore the decline in turkey prices and the contrasting rise in costs for fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes, driven by adverse weather and supply chain issues. Additionally, we examine shifts in consumer behavior and regional variations in food prices. By understanding these dynamics, we aim to shed light on the broader economic context and its implications for food accessibility and consumer spending.
In 2025, the cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner has decreased by 5% from 2024, yet it remains higher than the 2020 level. This reduction is a relief for many households after years of rising food prices, largely driven by inflation and supply chain disruptions [1][2]. The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) and Wells Fargo data indicate that turkey, dinner rolls, and stuffing are cheaper this year, while fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes have become more expensive due to adverse weather conditions and regional supply issues [2].
The decline in turkey prices is a significant factor in the overall cost reduction. Despite a 3% decrease in turkey production from 2024, consumer prices have not increased significantly, thanks to retailer discounts and competitive pricing strategies [3][4]. However, the wholesale price of turkey has surged by 75% since October 2024, primarily due to the ongoing impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on poultry flocks [4].
Inflation, which peaked in 2022, has been a persistent challenge, affecting various sectors, including food. Although inflation rates have declined, the prices of side dishes remain a pressure point for U.S. households. Wheat-based items like dinner rolls and stuffing are cheaper, but fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes have seen sharp price increases [1][2]. This inflationary pressure is compounded by supply chain disruptions and weather-related challenges, such as the drought in Mississippi, a major sweet potato producer [2].
The Deloitte Thanksgiving index reveals that the cost of a Thanksgiving meal for eight people in 2025 is $76.50, a modest 0.6% increase from 2024. This steadier price trend has not reversed the behavioral shifts seen in recent years, as many consumers continue to seek value and make convenience sacrifices [3]. The perception of not receiving good value at fair prices persists, even as high inflation has abated.
Despite the decrease in some food prices, consumer perceptions of value have not fully recovered from the inflation surge of 2022. Many consumers, including those with higher incomes, are now more price-sensitive and are considered “value seekers” [3]. This shift in behavior underscores the lasting impact of inflation on consumer confidence and spending habits.
The broader economic context includes a worldwide inflation surge from 2021 to 2022, driven by pandemic-related disruptions and geopolitical events such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although inflation rates have declined, economists suggest that consumer prices may remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels [5].
While the decrease in Thanksgiving dinner costs offers some respite, the ongoing challenges of inflation and supply disruptions highlight the need for targeted policy interventions. These interventions should focus on stabilizing food prices and improving accessibility for low-income families, ensuring that all demographics can enjoy traditional meals without financial strain.
Conclusion
In 2025, the cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner has decreased by 5% from 2024, offering some relief to consumers. This reduction is largely due to falling turkey prices, despite ongoing challenges such as the highly pathogenic avian influenza affecting poultry flocks. However, the prices of side dishes like fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes have risen, driven by adverse weather and supply chain disruptions. While inflation rates have declined since their peak in 2022, consumer perceptions of value remain strained, with many households continuing to seek better value. The mixed pricing trends and persistent inflationary pressures underscore the complex dynamics in the food market, highlighting the need for targeted policy interventions to stabilize food prices and improve accessibility for all demographics.
Sources
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/20/cost-of-classic-thanksgiving-dinner.html
[2] https://nypost.com/2025/11/22/lifestyle/new-data-shows-thanksgiving-dinner-costs-are-down-whats-cheaper-and-still-pricey/
[3] https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/consumer-products/cost-of-thanksgiving-dinner-meal.html
[4] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/turkey-price-increase-thanksgiving-2025/
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021–2023_inflation_surge
Written by the Spirit Of ’76 AI Research Assistant
Realizing News 
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